TIGER EXTRA

Can Missouri football cover the spread against Florida like it did Georgia?

Matt Stahl
Columbia Daily Tribune
Missouri running back Nathaniel Peat (8) runs the ball during the first half against Georgia on Saturday at Faurot Field.

Last week’s loss to Georgia hurt for Missouri football.

After holding a lead for most of the game, the Tigers ran out of gas in the fourth quarter and one of the top teams in the nation took advantage to steal a win. 

Fortunately for those who believed in Missouri, at least in a gambling sense, the Tigers did manage to cover the 28-point spread. That will likely do nothing to improve morale for the team on the field, but at least someone is happy. 

This week, Missouri is once again a multi-score underdog against Florida. As usual, this preview is for informational purposes only as the Tribune “doesn’t condone gambling,” and urges you to “follow all local guidelines with regards to placing wagers.”  

The line

When the books opened for Saturday’s game, the Gators were made a 10-point favorite. At time of writing, that had moved to 11 points.  

For Florida to cover that spread, it will need a big game out of quarterback Anthony Richardson. The signal-caller has all the athletic traits you want, including elite arm talent. 

However, he has looked shaky at times this year, particularly against Kentucky and South Florida. Missouri has a tough defense, though if cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine misses the game, it could make things a bit easier for the Gators. 

For Missouri to cover, that defense will play a crucial role. However, it will also need its offense to come out of its slump and put points on the board to keep it close. 

Georgia is not known for a strong defensive line, so perhaps the Tigers can make some moves in the ground game. If MU can make some blocks and make the rushing attack work, it could also slow the game down, keeping the ball out of Richardson’s hands as much as possible. 

The total

The over/under for Saturday’s game sits around 55 at most books. If the game goes over, it could happen in several ways. 

If Richardson and the Florida offense are allowed to function at their full capacity, the Gators could theoretically cover on their own. UF has a solid offensive line and if that unit can neutralize the Tigers’ front seven, Florida can score plenty of points. 

Another scenario involves the Missouri offense waking up. The offensive line has been a problem throughout the season, but Kentucky has a similar problem and the Wildcat unit managed to look solid in their win over Florida. 

Whether or not wide receiver Dominic Lovett plays Saturday could also make a difference. MU coach Eli Drinkwitz has said the receiver is day-to-day with a lower leg injury and has a 50% chance of playing. 

Lovett has provided Missouri with an explosive threat throughout the season and has been quarterback Brady Cook’s top threat. Should he be unable to go, it could make the climb over the points total more difficult. 

National roundup

Following Saturday’s loss, Missouri’s national championship futures odds sit around 1000-1, going all the way up to 5000-1 at some books. Please note that this would be an extremely ill-advised bet. 

All wagers come with a risk, but some are very obviously just throwing away money. A bet on the three-loss Tigers to win a national championship falls into the latter category. 

Another risky bet would be the Tigers to win the SEC championship, where they sit at around 1000-1 odds, tied with Vanderbilt as the least favorite option at some books. 

Florida is also an unlikely shot to win the national champion at around 300-1. After the close call against Missouri, Georgia is still one of the top choices for the title at around +200.  

The Bulldogs’ Stetson Bennett sits at around 20-1 in Heisman Trophy futures after Saturday’s game. For the Gators, Richardson stands at around 100-1.