Steelers 4 Downs: Numbers back perception that Steelers’ offense is as bad as you think

1. No offense, but…

Everyone from your favorite talk show host to the guy at the barstool next to you is saying how bad the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is this season. The traditional statistics — 28th in yards, 22nd in points — won’t cause anyone to dispute that. But what about a deeper dive into the numbers?

They paint an even worse picture.

Footballoutsiders.com compiles yards and points per drive, a method that eliminates some variables. The Steelers are last in the NFL in yards gained per drive (22.41) and are 26th in points per drive (1.36). For perspective, the leaders in those categories are 45.28 and 3.25, respectively (the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills).

Football Outsiders also has computed the Steelers are last in the NFL with a 59.2% “drive success rate,” which it defines as percentage of possessions in which a team gets a first down or touchdown.

But wait. There’s more. Sharp Football Analytics reports the Steelers’ 32% rate of three-and-out (defined as possessions of three plays and a punt) is the worst of any Steelers team since at least the turn of the century. Additionally, ESPN relayed that only 11.8% of Steelers drives have resulted in a touchdown this season. That would have placed them last in the NFL in 2021 behind the 4-13 New York Giants (12.2%).

2. Downfield Mitch

Steelers fans probably also have been hearing everyone say new quarterback Mitch Trubisky isn’t throwing the ball downfield. This is a case, though, where the data does not support the narrative.

Through Thursday’s game and out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL this season, Trubisky has the sixth-highest average intended air yards in the NFL. His passes, as calculated by Next Gen Stats, average 9.1 yards downfield to their intended targets. Trubisky’s 11.5 average intended air yards during Thursday night’s loss at the Cleveland Browns would rank as second most in the NFL over the full season.

3. Go long

Through Thursday, and according to Pro Football Focus, Trubisky had 19 pass attempts to targets 20 or more yards downfield. No one else in the NFL has more than 13 such attempts (albeit Trubisky has played three games and almost everyone else just two). Trubisky’s completions on the six targets have been two to George Pickens, two to tight end Pat Freiermuth and one each to Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.

All the other tight ends in the NFL combined have just eight such deep-ball receptions. No wide receiver in the NFL has more deep targets than Pickens’ seven. More than half of the throws to Pickens so far in his young career have been 20 or more yards downfield (seven of 12).

4. Cover 1 and done

ESPN had an interesting tidbit this week. The usage of “Cover 1” defenses by NFL teams has been declining in popularity in recent years. Defined as a scheme in which one safety is back deep in zone as the last line of defense behind what is man-to-man for other defenders, the propensity of Cover 1 deployment by NFL defensive coordinators has dropped each season since 2019. It was 37% of all called defenses that season, 35% in 2020, 31% last season and all the way down to 27% through two weeks of 2022.