Wolf expert: Missing mother of Colorado's North Park wolfpack likely dead

It appears likely the mother of Colorado's first wolf pups born in 80 years is no longer in North Park, leaving many to question what happened to her.

Evidence of her disappearance includes no confirmed sightings of her since mid-February despite an increase of video and photos of the pack (six yearlings and the breeding male), no denning activity and no pups seen this year, according to Colorado Parks and Wildlife.

Colorado Parks and Wildlife PW said the female is more than 6 years old and wolves in the wild have a life expectancy of 4.5 years. The agency said it does not have evidence to suggest the female is dead or has left the area. The collar she was wearing has not worked for months.

I asked wolf expert Diane Boyd about possible scenarios of what might have happened to the missing mother and what might happen to the pack now that it appears the matriarch is gone.

Boyd spent 40 years studying wolves in the Northern Rocky Mountains and recently authored a report titled "Lessons Learned to Inform Colorado Wolf Reintroduction and Management" for the National Wildlife Federation.

Given what you know of the situation and wolves, what is the likely fate of the female wolf?

She would likely not just disperse, because she is the glue of the pack and most important member. It is unlikely she was deposed by another female because there would be pups if that happened before breeding season was over in late February. If she hasn't been seen since February, the most likely scenario is she is dead, but we really don't know at this point.

What are likely causes of her death, if that is her fate?

There are two causes: natural or human caused.

The most likely scenario is she was killed by a human, and the second is she died from natural causes.

In Yellowstone National Park, the highest cause of mortality of wolves is being killed by other wolves. Outside of the park and the rest of the world occupied by humans, most wolf deaths are human caused.

More: Colorado wolf reintroductionWildlife agency identifies likely release sites

What are likely natural causes?

Wolves die naturally from all kinds of things, getting kicked by elk, drowning, other predators and I even had one die in an avalanche. They also die of contagious disease, but that doesn't appear to be the case in Colorado because you would think other wolves in the pack would have symptoms or succumb to the disease and that doesn't appear to be the case.

What are likely human-caused deaths?

She could have been hit by a vehicle. The first mortality in Yellowstone after wolves were reintroduced was by a UPS driver. Can you imagine being that driver?

She could have been shot, trapped or poisoned. A strong possibility is that she was shot in Wyoming.

We should not project who would intentionally or unintentionally kill her. There are a lot of different scenarios. The chances are very slim a local rancher would kill her because they have too much to lose and have been cooperative so far.

If the breeding female is gone, what happens to the pack?

The packs sometime disintegrate and splinter. Sometimes they hold together and eventually a new breeding female comes into the pack. That's not as likely in Colorado because there are so few wolves.

But wolves are amazing at finding each other, so if there is a breeding female in the area or one comes down from Wyoming they will find each other for mating and pup rearing.

If the female is dead, I wouldn't be too worried because there will be other opportunities for immigrating females. You might eventually end up with the pack splintering and have two or three packs.

It is very unlikely the breeding male will breed with his daughters.

More: Colorado wolf reintroductionGroups widely differ on number of wolves