Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund executive David McCormick were locked in a grindingly tight race Tuesday night for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated next year by incumbent Pat Toomey.
It seemed likely that it would be sometime Wednesday before a winner could be called, as tens of thousands of mail-in votes are tabulated in some counties.
As of late Tuesday, Oz was clinging to a lead of 2,672 votes, with about 95 percent of the total count in, according to the Associated Press. That left Oz at 31.3 percent of the total vote, and McCormick at 31.1 percent.
But here’s why no one could be declared the winner Tuesday night.
As of Monday, Department of State said that 171,692 Republican voters had applied for mail-in ballots. By the state’s counts, only 117,342 of those ballots had been counted in the Senate race through about 2 a.m. Wednesday morning. Of the mail-in ballots counted, McCormick was outpacing Oz by 37,838 to 26,910.
Presumably, some of those remaining mail-in ballots were never returned; those numbers were not immediately available Tuesday night. But as a hypothetical, if just two-thirds of the applied for mail-ins are cast and awaiting processing, and McCormick and Oz received the same mail-in vote shares relative to the rest of the field, Oz’s overall lead would be erased and McCormick would have a slight edge.
There are also scores of precincts that didn’t get tabulated Tuesday night in places like Philadelphia (74) where Oz was leading, and in Allegheny County (33), where McCormick held the advantage.
It’s also almost certain that the Senate race will trigger an automatic recount under Pennsylvania law, which requires full recounts if the margin of a statewide race is a 0.5 percent or less.
Both candidates sounded notes of encouragement to the faithful gathered at their respective watch parties late Tuesday night.
In Newtown, Bucks County, Oz said that “everything about this campaign has been tight” but that “when all the votes are tallied, I am confident that we will win.”
Oz thanked his campaign team and former President Donald J. Trump specifically, saying Trump “continued to lean into this race in Pennsylvania” after endorsing Oz.
Oz also cast the race in Pennsylvania as an existential fight for America’s future.
“We have the ability in Pennsylvania to fight for the soul of this county. We are such a critical part, a bellwether for the country,” Oz said, adding that “if the soul of Pennsylvania is thriving and healthy, so will be the soul of the nation.”
In Pittsburgh, meanwhile, McCormick said there would be no resolution Tuesday night, with the mail-in votes yet to be counted.
“Thank you all so much for your support. What’s happened across Pennsylvania today., there’s been a huge outpouring of support. We knew it. We felt it on the ground,” he said to the roomful of supporters. “We feel incredibly blessed to have you with us.
“We’re going to win this campaign,” McCormick continued. “We can see the path ahead. We can see victory ahead and it’s all because of you, so thank you Pennsylvania. Thank you for our great friends and supporters in this audience. We love you. We’re going to take back this state. We’re going to take back this country and it’s because of you. God bless you. God bless Pennsylvania and God bless America.”
If Oz does manage to seal the win, he will likely have done so because of the early April endorsement by Trump.
McCormick, meanwhile, appeared to have benefitted from a split of so-called “Trump Republicans” between Oz and conservative commentator Kathy Barnette, who polled a strong third place with about 24.8 percent of the vote.
Barnette’s strong showing among grassroots conservatives, and in Montgomery County — home to both her and Oz — was helping to keep the race close.
Asked if Barnette’s late-breaking performance — running to the right of the Trump-endorsed Oz — had complicated the race, John Weinrich, an Oz supporter and GOP nominee for the PA 152nd House District said “absolutely.”
“She had that last-minute surge,” he said. “She did well and I think she cost Dr. Oz a couple thousand votes.”
Even so, Barnette seemed to acknowledge her race was over Tuesday night as she thanked her grassroots army of volunteers.
“Guys, we have put up a great fight,” Barnette said at a reception hall in Elizabethtown, in a speech where she bitterly complained about what she called “disinformation” campaigns put up by her opponents in the last week. But she also exhorted her audience to continue to fight for America’s future, and hinted that she may have more political runs in her future.
“We’re going to continue this forward,” Barnette said.
The statewide map showed McCormick running particularly well in western Pennsylvania and fighting Oz at least to a draw in much of the rural and heavily-Republican ‘T,’ while Oz was winning most of the counties in the Northeastern Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley. The top two contenders fought nearly to a draw in Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Barnette was the leading vote-getter in voter-rich Montgomery, Berks and Lancaster counties.
Carla Sands, the former U.S. ambassador to Denmark (5.4 percent), and 2018 GOP lieutenant governor nominee Jeff Bartos (4.8 percent) were running a distant fourth and fifth, respectively, with Philadelphia attorneys Sean Gale and George Bochetto bringing up the rear.
The winner of the GOP race will advance into what is expected to be a hotly-contested and nationally-watched general election campaign against Pennsylvania’s Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who easily won the Democratic Party nomination.
McCormick supporters were of two varieties Tuesday: Those who were impressed by his glittering resume including a West Point degree and service as an officer in the 82nd Airborne, big successes in business and service at high levels in former President George W. Bush’s administration; or, those who for whatever reason, didn’t see Oz as senatorial enough.
Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick and his wife Dina Powell greet supporters as they arrive for his returns watch party in the Pennsylvania primary election, Tuesday, May 17, 2022, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)AP
“From watching him on TV, I don’t really trust him,” voter William Berwick said of Oz after casting his vote in Carlisle, in Cumberland County. His reference to television was all about the barrage of political advertisements that had portrayed Oz as a closet liberal through the bulk of the campaign, not the celebrated cardiologist’s wildly celebrated daytime television show.
“He vacillates,” Berwick said.
A lot of Oz supporters, meanwhile, said their vote for him was locked in by Trump’s April 9 endorsement.
“In my opinion, Trump hasn’t been wrong yet in terms of knowing what to do,” said York County voter John Creavey, who said he voted for Oz.
“He was endorsed by Donald Trump and I didn’t trust McCormick because he’s a Wall Street guy, and I think they’re all crooks,” said Oz supporter John Ganser, a 74-year-old retired aerospace engineer.
PennLive reporters Zack Hoopes and Jan Murphy contributed to this report.
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