Declining home prices and more properties put up for sale in the fall are granting buyers better choices within their budget in the Portland area and across the nation.
Experts see this seasonal cooldown as a welcomed trend after an unpredicted, scorching-hot residential real estate market during the coronavirus pandemic.
“Homes are still selling quickly and prices have not receded, but it’s not quite as extreme a sellers’ market as we saw back in the spring and summer,” Jeff Tucker, senior economist of the online real estate marketplace company Zillow, said in a news release. “Buyers today will benefit from a little more time to pick the right home and a few more listings to choose from.”
In the Portland area, the median sale price for houses and condos in September was $510,000, a decrease of $15,000, or 2.9%, from $525,000 in August, according to the latest Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) report.
Sellers are still in the power position, but asking prices are dropping for homes that linger on the market. The share of listings in the Portland metro with a price cut was 16.5% in September, compared to 14.6% in August, says Zillow.
This is the first time the median sale price in the Portland area has dipped since December 2020, according to the RMLS.
Before falling, monthly home value appreciation in the Portland metro jumped $15,000 from April’s $500,000 to May’s $515,000, $6,000 to June’s $521,000, $1,000 to July’s $522,000 and $3,000 to August’s $525,000, according to the RMLS.
This RMLS graph represents the average and median sale price for all homes sold in the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area.RMLS
“August was likely the peak for the year based on the statistics of the past,” said broker Dustin Miller of Windermere Realty Trust in Lake Oswego.
Miller said sellers might have to face an uncertain economy in the next 12 months as well as inflation’s negative effect on the market and rising interest rates.
The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage interest rate rose to 3.09% this week, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, known as Freddie Mac.
Another bane for buyers: Inventory in the Portland metro is 34.3% below pre-pandemic levels in September 2019, according to Zillow’s latest Market Report.
The number of homes for sale, measured in months, has been ticking up since hitting rock bottom with May’s 0.7 months of inventory, the lowest level recorded in the 30-year history of the RMLS.
September’s 1.1 months of inventory of unsold homes is still too low to aid buyers. If sales continue at the same pace, it would take about five weeks to sell all the available houses and condos on the market.
The residential real estate market is considered balanced between buyers and sellers when there are enough residential properties for sale that it would take four to six months to sell them.
This RMLS graph shows the closed sales over the past five calendar years in the greater Portland, Oregon metropolitan area.RMLS
High demand for homes is reported by the number of completed transactions, or closed sales, for 2021, which have been as high or higher each month than in the last four years, except in September, according to the RMLS.
A slight drop in prices in September is a relief to home shoppers, who in the last 12 months faced a median sale price jumped of 15.4%, compared to the previous 12 months, says the RMLS report.
The median sale price is the point in the middle at which half of the properties sell at a higher price and the other half at a lower price.
Nationally, Zillow economists expect 13.6% home value growth through September 2022.
The company says this 12-month forecast is supported by a slower inventory recovery and heightened sales and mortgage application activity.
Existing home sales are predicted by Zillow to rise 7% from an already strong 2020.
September 2021 housing stats
New listings: The 3,760 Portland metro area homes introduced to the market in September marked a 1.7% increase from the 3,698 new listings in August, according to the latest RMLS report.
Last month’s new listings in the Portland area were 15.2% more than homes listed for sale in September 2020.
Pending sales: In the Portland area, the 3,170 homes for sale that received an accepted offer in September represented a 10.3% decrease compared to the previous month but a 0.6% increase from September 2020, according to the report.
Closed sales: In September, 3,167 residential properties in the metro area were sold — a decrease of 1.6% from the 3,219 that closed in August and a 2.6% drop from the 3,251 closings in September 2020, the report shows.
Days on the market: The average time a Portland-area residential property was on the market before receiving an acceptable offer in September was 24 days, compared to August’s 23 days and July’s panic-inducing 20 days, according to the RMLS.
In September 2020, the average time on the market was 38 days.
— Janet Eastman | 503-294-4072
jeastman@oregonian.com | @janeteastman
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• Modern floating house in Portland with glass-brick wall for sale at high-water mark of $1,825,000
• Steamboat Inn, famous for fly fishing on the Umpqua River, is for sale at $3,750,000
• ‘Bison and brides’ farm owner buys freeway famous chateau: $5 million spent in Ashland in 9 months
• Portland fixer-uppers top out at $1.8 million: Are these homes a bargain?