San Angelo's winter likely to be warmer and drier, but severe cold weather still possible

SAN ANGELO — Climate scientists are predicting the San Angelo area will have a warmer, drier winter this year, but local meteorologists caution that severe cold weather is still possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the south to have worse drought conditions and warmer weather, according to a U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday, Oct. 21, 2021.

The report stated above-average temperatures were favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S. due to La Nina climate conditions, which have emerged for the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service.

In NOAA’s 2021 Winter Outlook, which extends from December 2021 through February 2022, wetter-than-average conditions are anticipated across portions of the Northern U.S., primarily in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska.

So what does that mean for the Concho Valley?

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San Angelo meteorologist say cold snap still possible

In February 2021, temperatures plummeted so low during Winter Storm Uri that portions of Lake Nasworthy and the Concho River were frozen solid. Despite the warmer winter climatologists predict, Thomas Pepe, meteorologist with the San Angelo NWS, said NOAA's report does not mean San Angelo won't see another big freeze.

"Last year was a weaker La Nina and we had that big freeze," Pepe said. "This season, we’re going to have a stronger signal of La Nina, so it’s more likely that we won’t see that kind of weather."

Pepe mentioned the occasional cold snap and snowfall could still happen in the winter months.

"(Climate Prediction Center) is saying that it is going to be warmer and drier than average," Pepe said. "That does not mean that you can’t have one or two or even a few big snowfall events or really cold snaps. Those things can happen."

What is La Nina and how does is affect weather?

La Nina is an oceanic and atmospheric event in which strong trade winds push warm water toward Asia. Colder water is brought to the surface on the western coast of the Americas, which in turn push the jet stream northward.

"This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada," according to NOAA.gov. " During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North."

Alana Edgin is a journalist covering Crime and Courts in West Texas. Send her a news tip at aedgin@gannett.com. 

John Tufts covers enterprise and investigative topics in West Texas. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com.