Health experts discuss efficacy of natural immunity vs. vaccinations on the path forward

DAYTON, Ohio (WKEF) -- While Ohio's new daily COVID-19 cases have increased to a 4,084 today, health experts say the numbers still reflect we're coming down from the surge. Health experts acknowledge natural immunity is playing a role in Ohio's path to herd immunity.

To reach the milestone of herd immunity, about 80-90% of our state's population must be immune. Yet, only 51 %of our state's eligible population is fully vaccinated, and we still can't quantify how widespread natural immunity is.

"The question is, what is the prevalence of natural infection and immunity from the in the community and that data is not necessarily easy to get at," Dr. Zach Jenkins, an infectious disease specialist with Cedarville University, said.

Yet Dr. Roberto Colon, with premier health projects a small number of our population is protected naturally.

"So I do think that it (natural immunity) helps. I just don't believe that that is the big reason why we are seeing a shift in the new cases," Colon said.

Jenkins added that protection with natural immunity is unpredictable in individuals.

"Vaccines target one specific protein, so you have this really hyper-specific response with your immune system. You can direct that across people and can't really do that with natural immunity," Jenkins said.

When I asked Colon, "How does immunity from the vaccines compare to natural immunity, and are you seeing a lot of hospitalizations among unvaccinated people who have already contracted COVID-19?"

He responded, "We don't yet know whether immunity from the vaccine is better or inferior to immunity from a previous infection. There is evidence on both sides that they both may offer some superiority to the other. We do have some data from large studies that are that are pushing us in the direction that natural immunity is better, but we also have two studies, one from Kentucky and some data from Nebraska actually showing kind of the opposite, so I think, in the absence of conclusive evidence, we don't want to prove that one is better than the other. We have seen breakthrough infections, and we have seen some people who have had reinfection."

Colon added that both breakthroughs and reinfections are not happening at high rates.

While Colon and Jenkins told me that studies project natural immunity is expected to last six months, conclusive evidence suggests COVID-19 survivors who get vaccinated have super levels of immunity. Colon says that experts also recognize that crossing over of different types of COVID-19 vaccinations may boost protection.

Yet both Jenkins and Colon say we must acknowledge damage relying on natural immunity has.

"There are a lot of people, whether they are predisposed to bad outcomes because they are older or a smaller number of the younger, healthier individuals that don't survive this illness," Colon said.

"There's going to be a big chunk of people that potentially would be infected, potentially hospitalized, or have more severe issues that develop in the long run. The problem that creates isn't just the people that have problems with the virus. We have limited resources, and so it's not just hospital space and hospital beds. It's not just doctor's office waiting rooms. It's also resources in terms of medications, you know, even before COVID existed, we've been dealing with National Drug Shortages," Jenkins said.

Colon tells me we'll have to see a significant drop in the community transmission of COVID-19 to reach levels of herd immunity, which is hard to project ahead of the holidays. Colon added that the anticipated approval of the Pfizer vaccine for kids 5 to 11 will be another game-changer.