NOAA 2021 Winter Outlook: Here's What's In Store For Puget Sound

SEATTLE — At long last, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its official winter outlook for the coming season, rounding out a stable of predictions over what to expect in the colder months to come.

Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña's emergence for the second year in a row, which typically means a cooler and wetter winter in the Pacific Northwest and other points north. For the annual winter forecast, released Thursday, NOAA enlisted its team of federal forecasters equipped with the latest computer models to paint a picture of La Niña's impact between December and February.

While the predictions spell good news for Western Washington, some of the nation's most drought-stricken areas may see little relief.

"Consistent with typical La Niña conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. while much of the South experiences above-normal temperatures," said Jon Gottschalck, with the Climate Prediction Center. "The Southwest will certainly remain a region of concern as we anticipate below-normal precipitation where drought conditions continue in most areas."

In Washington, the latest models favor cooler temperatures and more precipitation this winter, with no drought concerns west of the Cascades and conditions improving for the rest of the state and across the Pacific Northwest.

Here is a recap of the highlights from NOAA:

Temperature

• Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southern tier of the U.S. and much of the Eastern U.S. with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast.
• Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.
• The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Precipitation

• The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley and western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
• Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
• The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.

Drought

• Widespread severe to exceptional drought continues to dominate the western half of the continental U.S., Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin.
• Drought conditions are forecast to persist and develop in the Southwest and Southern Plains.
• The Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii are most likely to experience drought improvement.

How much will it snow in Washington?

NOAA's winter forecast sticks to broader temperature and precipitation trends and does not include seasonal snowfall predictions, which forecasters note are generally unreliable more than a week in advance.

However, looking at historical patterns during La Niña years — and second-year La Niña's in particular — can help fill in some gaps.

Earlier this week, the Seattle Weather Blog noted that Seattle averages 7.75 inches of snow during La Niña winters, and second-year events trend even higher. Last year's winter saw almost 13 inches of snowfall accumulation, largely due to the powerful snowstorm in February. For this year, the Seattle Weather Blog is predicting 8 inches of snow.

NOAA updates its seasonal outlooks monthly, and the next series of three-month projections are due Nov. 19.