WEATHER

NOAA outlook predicts a cold South Dakota winter. How does it compare to the Farmer's Almanac forecast?

Adam Hensley
Sioux Falls Argus Leader

Enjoy fall when you can, South Dakotans.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter outlooks for temperature, precipitation and drought for the United States. La Niña, a phenomenon where cold waters in the Pacific Ocean move the Jet Stream north and generally leads to colder winters in the northern U.S., will happen for the second consecutive year.

The result? South Dakota is in line for yet another cold winter. 

According to the NOAA's outlook, most of western and parts of northern South Dakota will experience a 33-40% chance for below-average temperatures. The northwest corner of the state is in line for a 40-50% chance for below-average temperatures.

Parts of southeastern Iowa may have a warmer than average winter. Northwestern Iowa could have a colder than average or warmer than average winter, NOAA said in its winter weather outlook Thursday.

A chunk of eastern South Dakota is in the mix for normal temperatures, as well as areas in the southern part of the state.

In terms of precipitation, NOAA predicts an average winter (equal chances for normal, below normal, and above normal precipitation) for South Dakota and much of the surrounding area. North Dakota, Kansas, and most of Minnesota are in the same boat.

In large parts of the country including the upper plains it is uncertain whether they will have more precipitation than normal, according to NOAA's Winter Weather Outlook.

More:South Dakota natural gas customers could see highest prices in 10 years this winter, PUC says

South Dakota's drought, though, looks to continue or worsen through the winter season in most parts of the state. The same can be said for North Dakota, parts of Kansas, Colorado, and nearly all of Wyoming.

Drought conditions are expected to improve or end in Iowa, according to NOAA's 2021 Winter Outlook.

How does the NOAA South Dakota forecast compare to the Farmer's Almanac?

They're actually pretty similar. Both predicted the South Dakota area to experience colder temperatures than normal. 

The Farmer's Almanac forecasts November temperatures will be seven degrees colder in northeastern and southern South Dakota with an average temperature of 22 in the Watertown area and 36 in Sioux Falls. January looks to be the coldest of the winter months, with an average temperature of 5 degrees in the northern part of the state, according to the almanac.

"Farmer's Almanac" forecast for winter 2021-2022.

Where the NOAA's prediction and the Farmer's Almanac's forecast slightly differ is in snowfall. The NOAA gives South Dakota a normal precipitation outlook for winter, while the Farmer's Almanac eyes precipitation levels between half an inch to two inches below normal.

More:How cold will South Dakota's winter get? The 2022 Farmer's Almanac predicts we'll need extra warm clothes.

Adam Hensley is a digital producer with the USA Today Network. You can follow him on Twitter @A_Hens83 or reach him at ahensley@gannett.com.