Forget the Almanac. Warmer, wetter winter a possibility for Central Indiana, NOAA says

There's a good chance winter in Central Indiana will be warmer and wetter normal, according to predictions released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Indianapolis sits in a region that is listed as "leaning above" predicted normal temperatures for the December 2021 to February 2021 timespan, NOAA maps indicate. There is about a 50% above normal chance that Indiana, along with most of the east coast and parts of the south, will experience those warmer-than-normal temperatures.

There's a similar chance nearly all of Indiana most of the Ohio Valley will also see more precipitation. 

More:This is what the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts for Indiana's 2021 winter

Average temperatures are determined over a 30-year period, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Ryan. Those periods change every 10 years, and the current average period is determined based on temperatures from 1991 to 2020. 

In Indiana, the average temperature for December through February is usually about 31 or 32 degrees. Indiana during that three-month period tends to get 8.5 inches of precipitation and a little over 21 inches of snowfall.

But winter has started a bit later in recent years, with snow some years not falling until well into November and then taking longer to stop — "bleeding into March," Ryan said.

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"It seems to be taking a little longer..." Ryan told IndyStar, noting meteorologists don't have a clear answer for why. "That's just a recent trend we've noticed."

And Ryan credited the greater chance of precipitation in the Indiana region to the second-consecutive year of La Niña conditions. 

La Niña conditions arise when there are colder-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which then lead to storm systems moving through the Ohio Valley at a greater frequency, Ryan said.

NOAA's predictions stand at odds with recently-released predictions by the Old Farmer's Almanac. 

The Almanac predicted the upcoming winter in Indiana might be the longest and coldest in years. This winter, it said, will bring below average temperatures and lots of snow to parts of the country, including Indiana.

According to its website, the Almanac is 80% accurate in its weather predictions.

Contact Lawrence Andrea at 317-775-4313 or landrea@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @lawrencegandrea.