Here are The Commish's gambling picks for Week 2 of the NFL season
The opening week of the NFL season provided a rough week for the betting public.
The house raked in massive wins on the backs of the marquee matchups. Many sportsbooks recorded a record number of bets being placed, and with new betting jurisdictions in place throughout the country, those numbers are projected to grow.
The underdogs set the tone, beginning with the Dallas cover on Thursday night, and continued all the way through the final upset victory by the Raiders on Monday Night Football. In total, underdogs finished a mind boggling 13-3 against the spread, resulting in big profits for those who build castles in the desert of Las Vegas.
Moneyline wagers provided the sportsbooks with massive wins due to upsets throughout the league. The sportsbook at PointsBet was one of the books who took advantage of the underdog wins. According to their numbers, over 90% of the moneyline cash was placed on the Packers in their matchup against the Saints. The Bills drew 82% of the moneyline handle against the Steelers, and Jacksonville’s upset win over the Texans came with the Jaguars drawing 72% of the moneyline cash.
As we turn the page to week 2 of NFL action, remember to not overreact to anything that happened in week 1. It’s still too early to interpret any true trends or tendencies, so keep your risk low until we can start to make informed decisions as it relates to our bankroll management.
Last week’s picks
OHIO STATE (-14.5) vs. Oregon: This game was further proof that preseason polls in college football are meaningless. Oregon 35, Notre Dame 28 - LOSS
NOTRE DAME (-17.5) vs. Toledo: The Irish once again did just enough to win against a solid opponent. Toledo played their guts out and could be the best team in the state of Ohio. Notre Dame 32, Toledo 29 - LOSS
OVER (49) Eagles @ Falcons: Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan appeared to be way past his prime in this one. The Eagles dominated the game from start to finish with no offensive contributions from Atlanta. Eagles 32, Falcons 6 - LOSS
GIANTS (+3) vs. Broncos: The Giants led 7-3 before the Broncos went on a 24-6 run to put the game away. Denver is now over .500 for the first time in nearly 3 years. Denver 27, Giants 13 - LOSS
OVER (12.5) Rushing yards by Patrick Mahomes (-120) - Browns @ Chiefs: Not even a couple kneel downs in victory formation could ruin this pick. 5 carries, 18 yards - WIN
OVER (249.5) Passing yards by Kyler Murray (-115) - Cardinals @ Titans: Murray threw the football all over the field and reached this number before the end of the 3rd quarter. 21 of 32 for 289 passing yards - WIN
This week's picks
UNDER (45.5) Bengals @ Bears: The Bengals are riding high following their Week 1 upset over the Vikings. The Bears are still stinging after an uneven performance against the high-octane Rams. Look for the Bengals to deliver a heavy dose of Joe Mixon, while the Bears counter with heavy touches for David Montgomery. This will result in just enough time-consuming drives to keep this total under the projection.
COWBOYS (+3.5) @ Chargers: The Cowboys began their season with a crushing loss against the defending Super Bowl champs, despite leading with just over a minute remaining in the game. But their offense was prolific, even against the toughest front seven in the NFL. The Chargers slapped around an inferior Washington team and coasted to the win. Dallas has been decimated with injuries, and will ride the legs of running back Zeke Elliott in this one. Look for this game to be tight, with the Cowboys staying within the spread.
RAIDERS (+6.5) @ Steelers: In their season opener, the Steelers made it clear they are not ready to fade into mediocrity. They controlled the game against a very talented Buffalo squad and did so in convincing fashion. The Raiders pulled off a magical upset of the Ravens during a prime-time performance, causing many to stay up way past their bedtime. After facing Lamar Jackson last week, the Raiders will feel like they are going up against a statue in the form of Ben Roethlisberger. Look for the Steelers to win the game, but not by enough to cover this number.
PACKERS (-11) vs. Lions: Detroit pulled off a miraculous late back-door cover in their season opener, while the Packers were absolutely embarrassed on the road in New Orleans. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is 6-0 following a regular season loss, and Aaron Rodgers has been grumpy all week while forced to answer questions about one of the worst performances of his career. This is the perfect recipe for the Packers to throttle the Lions at Lambeau Field. Look for Green Bay to take a healthy lead, and not take the foot off the throttle to ensure the cover.