Falcons might have the blueprint for Eagles' rebuild with their quarterback decision; and 2021 NFL predictions

Take a good look at the Atlanta Falcons because the Eagles could very well face the same decision next spring.

That decision for the Eagles, who face the Falcons on Sunday, is either pooling their potential three first-round draft picks to select a franchise quarterback in the draft; or committing to quarterback Jalen Hurts and using those first-round picks to upgrade the positions around him.

The Falcons used the No. 4 pick last spring on tight end Kyle Pitts instead of either quarterbacks Justin Fields or Mac Jones (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance went first, second and third, respectively).

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The quarterback would have been the easy route to take.

After all, the Falcons are coming off a 4-12 season. They have a new head coach in Arthur Smith. They traded away their top wide receiver in Julio Jones. And returning quarterback Matt Ryan is 36 years old.

The success of the head coach and quarterback is always linked.

The Eagles demonstrated this – good and bad – when Doug Pederson became the head coach in 2016 and the Eagles traded up to No. 2 to select Carson Wentz in the draft.

Wentz played at an MVP level in 2017 until his knee injury late that season. But the Eagles won the Super Bowl with backup Nick Foles. Everything changed after Wentz had by far his worst season of his career in 2020.

Pederson was fired, Wentz was traded to Indianapolis. Now it's Nick Sirianni taking over with Hurts, the Eagles' second-round pick in 2020, as the quarterback.

But the Eagles aren't committed to Hurts beyond this season.

The Falcons, meanwhile, committed to Ryan for this year, and most likely next year, too, based on Ryan's salary-cap situation. Their belief is that even at 36 years old, he was better – right now – than the quarterbacks in the draft.

"Just because you’re sitting at No. 4 doesn’t mean you’re going to take the first quarterback," Smith said in a conference call. "That’s no knock at anybody who drafted one behind us. There are a lot of philosophies, but we feel like Matt Ryan is still playing at a high level.

"We felt like we improved our football team when we drafted Kyle Pitts."

The Eagles will get a sense of this, too, in that Pitts at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash, impressive for a wide receiver let alone for a tight end his size.

"You want to be physical with him around the line of scrimmage," Eagles safety Anthony Harris said. "You want to disrupt that timing, whether it's some of the defensive lineman getting in his way ... and (in the secondary), just being aware of the players that are on the field."

Good luck with that.

Drafting Pitts was a signal that the Falcons believe they can return to competitiveness quicker with him and Ryan still in place, along with returning star wide receiver Calvin Ridley.

After all, Ryan threw for 4,581 yards last season, his 10th straight season throwing for 4,000 or more. Ryan also threw for 26 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions, with a passer rating of 93.3.

The Eagles actually faced that dilemma last spring. Originally slotted at No. 6 in the draft, they traded back to No. 12, then up to No. 10, netting an extra first-round pick in the process.

And as it turned out, both Fields and Jones were still available at No. 10. Instead, the Eagles took wide receiver DeVonta Smith. The belief was that Smith, Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins can develop together, whether Hurts is the quarterback or someone else down the road.

If Hurts convinces the Eagles that he deserves to be the franchise quarterback, then the Eagles can use those valuable early-round picks in 2022 to upgrade the roster around him.

And there are needs, particularly on the offensive line as center Jason Kelce, right guard Brandon Brooks and right tackle Lane Johnson are all in their 30s. 

The Eagles could also draft a future lockdown cornerback and/or safety considering that Darius Slay and Rodney McLeod are both over 30, and Steve Nelson and Harris are only signed for this season.

Ideally, the Eagles would prefer to build. The Falcons are doing that, too, but that's not forever.

"Matt, unless he finds the fountain of youth ... is not going to play until he’s 50," Smith said. "So at some point, we do have to make a transition to another quarterback. We feel like Kyle will be great as he develops, and Matt will help him come along. And when we make that transition, we got a pretty stable team."

As for the game, let's start with the premise that the Eagles are more unknown than the Falcons are, so the Eagles would have that proverbial competitive advantage.

But really, their advantage will come from a much better offensive line after an injury-plagued 2020 and a defensive line rotation that should have its way with a relatively inexperienced Falcons' offensive line.

Sure, Ridley and Pitts will be a handful for the Eagles, so the key is getting as much pressure as possible on Ryan without having to blitz. If that happens, the Eagles will have enough offense, no matter how Sirianni manages it, to win.

Score: Eagles 22, Falcons 17

NFL predictions

I'm taking COVID-19 into account when making my picks.

While the Bills, for example, are Super Bowl worthy, there's an eerie feeling that some of their key players, particularly wide receiver Cole Beasley, might have to miss games or practices because of their refusal to get the vaccine.

Even if that doesn't happen, there could be rancor in the locker room over the possibility that some players could jeopardize the good of the team. That's also true with Wentz in Indianapolis.

The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and a loaded roster, and they have represented the AFC in the last two Super Bowls. Cleveland is among the favorites, but the Browns play in a brutal division with the Steelers, Ravens and improving Bengals, and that will cost them some wins and the home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Tennessee is a great offensive team with Jones and running back Derrick Henry, but the defense is spotty.

As for the NFC, the Buccaneers (100% vaccination rate) appear loaded again with everyone returning from last season's championship. But I can't see them getting past the Packers for a second straight year, not with Aaron Rodgers on his last hurrah. 

The Rams (NFC West champs) will challenge with Matthew Stafford at QB, and the Seahawks (first wildcard) are always dangerous. The Cowboys are good enough to win the NFC East, but not much more.

And the 49ers are trying the difficult task of contending while transitioning from Jimmy Garopollo to Trey Lance. That'll be good enough for a wildcard, but that's about it.

The Eagles will go 9-8 and get the third wildcard spot, which will be considered a successful first season for Sirianni.

The Chiefs will beat the Packers and win the Super Bowl.

Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.