With a more contagious coronavirus mutation on the prowl, pandemic data scientists expect infections to reach April’s levels in about six weeks.
The warning comes from the latest forecast by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute, which predicts the delta variant — the virus strain linked to devastating outbreaks in India — will cause big increases in illnesses as vaccinations remain below herd immunity.
The variant is now responsible for more than 70% of new cases, and scientists believe it will reach 90% by mid-August.
“With many Virginians returning to normal, the virus has room to run,” the report said.
Across the state, more than one in every 20 standard nasal swab tests came back positive last week, a jump of 33%, according to Virginia Department of Health data. In Hampton Roads, most local positive test rates are higher, with nearly all in the 8% to 13% range.
About 870 new coronavirus cases are being diagnosed throughout Virginia each day, up from the 100 to 200 averages of June.
A return to April’s level of transmission could mean daily cases between 1,000 and 1,500.
As public health officials expected, the localities with broader vaccination coverage appear to be faring better. In James City County, with the highest proportion of fully vaccinated residents in the region, only 3% of tests were positive.
To reduce outbreaks, public health officials are advising unvaccinated residents to get the shots. For those who can’t, they urge mask-wearing, keeping 6 feet from others and washing hands frequently.
Health experts say vaccination will be the most effective tool at stopping the pandemic, which has killed 11,532 Virginians and infected at least 538,000. Unvaccinated people have made up 99% of Virginia’s COVID-19 cases and 98% of serious illnesses and deaths since late January, according to the state health department.
But since July 1, about 4% of COVID-19 hospitalizations were for people who had been fully vaccinated, an early signal that the more contagious strain is contributing to so-called “breakthrough” cases.
Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended everyone, regardless of vaccination status, return to wearing masks in public indoor spaces, if they’re in areas with elevated COVID-19 transmission. For virtually all of Hampton Roads, that means face coverings indoors.
The federal recommendations follow new information that shows fully inoculated people are able to get the delta variant — and spread it.
The CDC’s advice could lead Gov. Ralph Northam to institute new mask policies. For now, he’s encouraging Virginians to wear them voluntarily.
“Masks are effective at preventing the spread of #COVID19, but getting vaccinated is the surest way we can bring this pandemic to an end. All three vaccines are safe, effective, and free,” he said Thursday on Twitter.
On the same day, the Department of Defense announced military personnel and civilian workers would need to divulge whether they’ve been vaccinated. Those who don’t comply will have to wear masks and undergo weekly testing. Federal workers who aren’t vaccinated or don’t show proof of immunization won’t be allowed to travel for work.
The number of coronavirus cases in the United States rose to 34.8 million last week, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 612,000 Americans have died. About 196.8 million people worldwide have had confirmed infections, with 4.2 million deaths.
During the past week, six people were reported to have died from the virus in Hampton Roads: two each in Newport News and Suffolk, and one each in Virginia Beach and Gloucester County.
Virginia Beach had the highest count of new infections in the region last week, reporting 395 new cases. It was followed by Chesapeake, with 261, and Newport News, with 171.
High caseloads are expected in bigger cities, but some communities with fewer people see greater rates of new cases per capita. Franklin, for example, ranked the highest in the region last week based on population size, at 23 per 100,000 people. By comparison, Virginia Beach had 13 per 100,000 and Norfolk had 9.
About 4.6 million Virginians, or 54% of the population, had been fully inoculated as of Friday — flat for the past three weeks. Approximately 60% of Virginians have at least one shot.
Here’s a look at vaccination rates throughout the region. These figures do not include the 443,000 doses administered to Virginians by federal agencies, such as the military, because location information has not been provided for them:
In Chesapeake, 59% of adults and 48% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 43% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Hampton, 55% of adults and 46% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In James City County, 74% of adults and 62% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 56% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Newport News, 56% of adults and 45% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 40% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Norfolk, 46% of adults and 39% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 34% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Portsmouth, 51% of adults and 41% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 35% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Poquoson, 69% of adults and 57% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 52% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Suffolk, 58% of adults and 47% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 41% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Virginia Beach, 61% of adults and 50% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 46% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In Williamsburg, 53% of adults and 49% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 44% of all residents are fully inoculated.
In York County, 66% of adults and 54% of the entire population have at least one dose. About 49% of all residents are fully inoculated.
For other pandemic data, go to www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus.
For information on a city or county’s transmission level, see the CDC data tracker at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view.
For more information on where to find vaccines, visit vaccinate.virginia.gov or www.vaccines.gov. For phone assistance, call 1-877-VAX-IN-VA.
Elisha Sauers, 757-839-4754, elisha.sauers@pilotonline.com
