SAN JOSE – The Sharks’ 2019-2020 season was a mess almost from start to finish. But perhaps the toughest part for the organization was watching the NHL Draft Lottery unfold after their season was over.
The Sharks, who finished with the third-worst record in the NHL, could only watch as the Ottawa Senators were awarded the third overall selection with the draft pick they acquired from San Jose as part of the mammoth Erik Karlsson trade in 2018.
The Sharks will not be making the playoffs this season, either, but next month’s draft lottery will be easier to stomach.
The way things stand, the Sharks will have a decent chance at earning a top-10 pick and possibly even the first or second overall selection if things break a certain way over the final two weeks of the regular season. Sharks general manager Doug Wilson has already said he will not trade his first-round pick this year for immediate help.
“We’re sitting in a position where, as of right now, we could have a top six or seven pick coming in next year,” Sharks coach Bob Boughner said Tuesday.
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The Sharks (20-26-6) entered Tuesday with 46 points and a .442 points percentage, both of which ranked 24th out of 31 teams. They play the Avalanche at SAP Center again Wednesday, host the Arizona Coyotes on Friday and Saturday, and the Vegas Golden Knights on May 12 to end the season.
Before Tuesday’s games, six points separated the Chicago Blackhawks, in 20th place in the overall standings with 50 points, from the 27th-place Columbus Blue Jackets.
For the Sharks, a few more wins in their last four games could lower their projected chances of drafting first or second overall this season. A few more losses and those same percentages could increase ever-so-slightly.
The Sharks could be passed by the Senators and Detroit Red Wings, who both have 45 points, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have 44. Ottawa, which is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games, has four games left. Detroit has two and Columbus has three.
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The Vancouver Canucks have 41 points. But after their team was ravaged by a widespread COVID-19 outbreak that caused their season to be interrupted for over three weeks, the Canucks still have 10 games remaining. The Canucks’ season is scheduled to end May 19.
By the same token, the Sharks could finish ahead of Los Angeles, Calgary, Arizona, and Chicago if they end the season on a hot streak. The Sharks and those four teams were separated by four points going into Tuesday’s games.
“We’ve got guys that are playing hard and no one’s cashing in their ticket yet, or no one’s taking the easy way out,” Boughner said after Monday’s 5-4 overtime loss to the Avalanche that mathematically eliminated the Sharks. “I’m happy about that.”
While the NHL has typically not announced its draft lottery odds until after the regular season is completed, the Sharks have a general idea of what their chances will be June 2 of coming out on top.
The last three seasons, the team that has finished with the eighth-worst record in the NHL has had a 6.0 percent chance of winning the lottery. The team with the worst record had the best chance at 18.5 percent.
Those percentages could be altered a bit this season.
There are now 16 teams in the lottery with the addition of the Seattle Kraken. Plus, the Arizona Coyotes had their first-round pick stripped from them by the NHL for violating the league’s combine testing policy. It is unknown how Arizona’s odds of winning the lottery would be dispersed should the Coyotes not make the playoffs.
The team with the worst record in the league will draft no lower than third overall. The Kraken will have the third-best odds of winning the draft lottery.
Once the lottery for the first overall pick is completed, there will be another lottery to determine who will draft second overall.
Tankathon.com, a website that projects draft lottery results for the NHL and NBA, calculates that if the Sharks are passed by Ottawa, Detroit, Columbus, and Vancouver and finish 28th overall, they could have a 9.5 percent chance of winning and a 19.1 percent chance of drafting in the top two.
Right now, with the eighth-worst record in the NHL, the Sharks are projected by Tankathon to have a 6.0 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, which could be Michigan defenseman Owen Power. They also have a 12.3 percent chance of landing the second overall selection, possibly Swedish-born defenseman Simon Edvinsson.
Either player might be able to step into an NHL lineup next season.
The Sharks have drafted 10th or better 10 times in their history, although it’s only happened once in the previous 13 years. The last time they were in the lottery was in 2015 when they wound up with the ninth overall pick, which they used to select forward Timo Meier.
The Sharks then played in 60 playoff games over the next four years.
“It’s a little disappointing not to be in the playoffs,” Boughner said Monday night. “But we know what the big picture looks like and where we’re going.”
DRAFT LOTTERY ODDS (by Tankathon.com)
Lottery odds are still unofficial for the 16 non-playoff teams to win the draft lottery. The NHL has not yet announced how it would disperse Arizona’s odds of winning the lottery should the Coyotes not make the playoffs. The league stripped Arizona of its 2020 second-round pick and its 2021 first-round pick for violating the NHL’s combine testing policy. The expansion Seattle Kraken will be given the third-best odds to win the lottery.
REG. SEASON FINISH TOP TWO % TOP PICK %
1 34.9% 18.5%
2 26.5% 13.5%
3 22.8% 11.5%
4 19.1% 9.5%
5 17.2% 8.5%
6 15.3% 7.5%
7 13.3% 6.5%
8 12.3% 6.0%
9 9.3% 4.5%
10 7.3% 3.5%
11 6.3% 3.0%
12 5.2% 2.5%
13 4.2% 2.0%
14 3.2% 1.5%
15 2.1% 1.0%
16 1.1% 0.5%
